What factors affect the power of the president?

Joe Biden has not had an easy start to his presidency. Whilst he had some success with the vaccine rollout in the US, and he has not been dealt an easy hand in terms of current events, with the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he has also not given allies a lot to point to in terms of clear successes. 

That said, it would have been hard to get anything done anyway. Whilst the Democrats have a sufficiently healthy majority in the House of Representatives (currently 222-211, with 2 vacant seats), their lack of majority in the Senate, which is effectively 50-50, has given West Virginia's Joe Manchin III and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona a veto over Democratic legislation, and in effect Biden's whole agenda. But what else could have an impact?

House or Senate composition

As we have said, this makes a huge difference. When Obama was able to command a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, in 2009-10, he was able to pass Obamacare (the PPACA). When he lost this in the 2010 mid-terms it meant that Republicans were able to block a lot of Obama's agenda for the rest of his presidency. Whilst the House swung to the Democrats in the second half of Trump's term, the in-built Republican advantage in the Senate means that Trump was still able to successfully put through three Supreme Court picks. Biden may have a more difficult task in this regard.

The Supreme Court

SCOTUS, and the court system in general, does have the potential to frustrate a presidential agenda. The court is now, with Amy Coney Barratt, split 6-3 in favour of conservative justices, or justices that routinely vote in a conservative manner.  This 6-3 vote split was seen in January 2022 when the court struck down Biden's workplace vaccine mandate. In 2020 the court voted 5-4 (pre-Coney Barratt) to block the Trump administration from ending the DACA scheme, for immigrants who arrived during childhood, with John Roberts joining the liberal justices of the court.

Public opinion

One only need look to the Watergate scandal in the early 1970s for evidence of this. Nixon should, in theory, have been in a strong position, having been elected with a landslide in 1972. However, the long-running Watergate scandal sapped his popularity, and would have left him as a lame duck, without the ability to take action on any of his agenda, as well as making successful impeachment a certainty.

Additionally, it should also be said that the popularity of the president can also impact the extent to which even representatives and senators from their own party wish to be associated with them. Democrats from swing states, in mid-terms and in Obama's second term, distanced themselves from him, and Trump was not mentioned in the campaign literature of many Republicans in 2020.

The economy and events

Whilst Bill Clinton was also affected by scandal, and was faced with a hostile Republican House of Representatives, he also presided over a lengthy economic boom, which hugely improved his popularity. By contrast, the state of the economy in 2008 may have contributed to Obama's victory over John McCain, and long term sluggish wage growth in the US may have been important in Trump's victory over establishment-candidate Hillary Clinton. 

Trump frequently mentioned the success of the stock market during his time in office, but 2020 also saw the impact of Coronavirus in America and around the world, and many analysts argue that it was this that prevented Trump's reelection, in spite of a successful economy. Wars and other crises can also make or break a presidency; Bush was hugely popular for several years after 9/11 and during the early stages of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, whilst Lyndon B. Johnson also suffered for his handling of the war in Vietnam.

Conclusion

Not one of these things in isolation is enough to furnish a president with a strong hand, nor is it enough to fundamentally weaken them. But the United States has a complicated political system with a range of powerful actors, and significant checks and balances. Given that the president can still undertake great actions, even without the approval of these other branches, I am reminded of what the Earl of Manchester said about Charles I; "If we beat the King ninety and nine times yet he is still King, and so will his posterity be after him." Many things can block a president or reduce their power, but what they can do is still considerable, and the eyes of the country and the world are still on them.