The problem of strikes

 One of the major impacts of the difficult economic circumstances that the UK and other countries are currently going through is that of increasing public section discontent. Inflation, at the time of writing, is 9.1%, with the net impact being a real terms decrease in pay for workers. Unlike private sector workers, whose pay is obviously set without limits by their employer, the government has some sort of role in public sector pay, even if it is (in some cases) less direct. For instance, Network Rail is currently negotiating with the RMT union, whose Secretary-General has become somewhat of a cult media personalty in recent days.

It may seem counter-intuitive in some ways, but many have argued that Labour is actually at greater risk due to these strikes than the government. The Labour Party was formed out of unions and other similar bodies, and has always maintained close links (though less so under Starmer, as seen by his strained relations with Unite, Labour's biggest donor). The Conservatives will be hoping that the strikes are hugely unpopular and that the population associate these with Labour. Starmer has tried to distance himself from these to some extent, which has created some unease within the party, with 25 MPs joining picket lines of strikers, against central party instructions. The line of the party has been that they are a government in waiting, and as such would not be taking a side in the dispute. How well this works will remain to be seen.

However, there are clear risks for the government in this strategy. Firstly, people will often blame the government for everything under their watch, sometimes fairly, sometimes unfairly. When their transport is bad, the chances are that many people will roll it in with other things that have happened recently and blame the government anyway. Also, it seems likely that many more strikes are likely. Teachers and nurses may be likely to go on strike later this year due to their pay offers, so the government's line that Labour will take us 'back to the 70s' may be true of what is happening under their watch, with a huge level of strikes and an economic crisis. The public may also be somewhat more in favour of strikes than the government believes, as a recent survey (above) suggests.

The situation will be likely to change further in the next few months, but the fallout could be different than one would expect.