It Was the Sun Wot Won It - Newspapers and general elections

One major impact on voting that we must consider is that of the media, and there is no stronger manifestation of that influence than that of the traditionally powerful British newspaper industry. Famously, in 1992, the Sun savagely attacked Neil Kinnock, depicting his head in a lightbulb, and writing "if Kinnock wins today will the last person to leave Britain please turn out the lights." This anti-Labour stance seemed to work, and the Sun rejoiced with the headline "it's the Sun wot won it".

Britain's most popular newspapers, by far, are the Sun and the Daily Mail, both of which lean significantly to the right. Normally Britain's most successful and popular newspapers do favour the Conservative Party, who also normally win elections. However, during Tony Blair's tenure as Labour leader, the party was able to win support from some of these papers, including the Sun and the Mail, and even the Express in 2001. Whilst this was in itself controversial - the Labour Party was criticised by many on the left for pandering to these papers, and it is seen as evidence that the party went too far to the right - it also seems to provide some evidence that the support of such newspapers is, in itself, decisive.

This chart of party support came from a 2010 Guardian article you can find here.

However, other data may refute this. For a start, how many people changed their minds based on what newspapers say? Most people have made up their minds prior to electoral campaigns, as around 60% of people still say they have a very strong or fairly strong affiliation with one of the parties. Still, this means that volatility (changing parties between elections) is far higher than previously, where party affiliation was previously very strong, as this article from the BBC shows.

Endorsements in the 2019 General Election. I'm not sure the Morning Star will be supporting Labour under Starmer...

So even while one may doubt whether newspapers determine the vote of the increasing numbers of undecided voters they are certainly still capable of having a significant influence. Whilst they may not swing voters in the short term, they can still have an effect in the long term - one only need look at the long-term effect of anti-EU and anti-immigration stories over several years. Newspaper are still blessed with a power to set the agenda, where TV news will often follow stories set by the print media. As well as this, newspapers are still perceived as being hugely important by politicians, where senior politicians will still court the owners of papers, and try to gain their favour (though Ed Miliband tried this with the Sun not long before they published the famous photo of him failing to eat a bacon sandwich).

Was it the Sun wot won it? Well, maybe. But it could well have been the attitudes that were formed over several years rather than one headline.