Does the winner of the invisible primary always win the presidency?

The invisible primary, ie the period up to the beginning of the official election period at the start of a presidential election year, is an influential period in determining who will go on to receive the eventual Democrat or Republican nomination. This works in a few ways:

1. A clear front runner emerges in their party.

2. A candidate gains a significant funding advantage over their opponents.

3. Rival candidates can emerge.

What the record below suggests is that there is a clear relationship between the invisible primary winner and the eventual nominee. This is especially the case in the Republican Party, where all but once since 1976 the invisible primary winner has secured the nomination.

(Names in bold indicate where an alternative candidate won the nomination)

	Republicans	Democrats
2020		Joe Biden
2016	Donald Trump	Hillary Clinton
2012	Mitt Romney
2008	Rudi Giuliani (John McCain)	Hillary Clinton (Barack Obama)
2004		Howard Dean (John Kerry)
2000	George W Bush	Al Gore
1996	Bob Dole
1992		Bill Clinton
1988	George HW Bush	Gary Hart (Michael Dukakis)
1984		Walter Mondale
1980	Ronald Reagan
1976	Gerald Ford	Jimmy Carter