What next for Scottish independence?

This week the UK's Supreme Court delivered a decision which has significant bearing on the future of the United Kingdom, and for politics students an impact on our understanding of issues such as devolution and the nature of our state.

In recent years the question has emerged, since the beginnings of devolution under the Labour governments of Tony Blair after 1997, about whether the traditional unitary state that exists in the UK still exists. Does the existence of assemblies in Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and London (and English Votes for English Laws until recently) mean that the UK is now a federal state? Or does the differing strengths of those parliaments and assemblies (where the Scottish parliament is by some margins the most powerful, and London's assembly lacks power) mean that what we have is a form of asymmetric devolution, or what Vernon Bogdanor would call 'quasi-federalism'.

But the Scottish desire for a fresh referendum has meant the question of whether they can call it themselves has ended up at the Supreme Court, which has ruled that this can only be done by the Westminster government under our unitary system. This means that we can add a new sense of clarity to the existence of a unitary state which appeared to be slipping away.

The Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has said that the SNP will now pursue other avenues towards independence. One thing that is quite likely is treating the next Westminster elections as a de facto referendum, where, if 50% of the population vote SNP then this is seen as a green light. This is a path that is not without risks - firstly because the SNP only received 45% of the vote in 2019, an identical share to the Yes vote in 2014. Additionally, there may be significant numbers of voters who vote SNP to give Scotland a strong voice in Westminster, or vote for them on other policies, but would not vote for them if they knew their vote would be interpreted as a de facto vote for independence. Still, the SNP have dominated all Westminster and Scottish elections since the early 2010s, and it is not impossible that this threshold is reached.