What next for Scottish independence?

This week the UK's Supreme Court delivered a decision which has significant bearing on the future of the United Kingdom, and for politics students an impact on our understanding of issues such as devolution and the nature of our state.

In recent years the question has emerged, since the beginnings of devolution under the Labour governments of Tony Blair after 1997, about whether the traditional unitary state that exists in the UK still exists. Does the existence of assemblies in Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and London (and English Votes for English Laws until recently) mean that the UK is now a federal state? Or does the differing strengths of those parliaments and assemblies (where the Scottish parliament is by some margins the most powerful, and London's assembly lacks power) mean that what we have is a form of asymmetric devolution, or what Vernon Bogdanor would call 'quasi-federalism'.

But the Scottish desire for a fresh referendum has meant the question of whether they can call it themselves has ended up at the Supreme Court, which has ruled that this can only be done by the Westminster government under our unitary system. This means that we can add a new sense of clarity to the existence of a unitary state which appeared to be slipping away.

The Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has said that the SNP will now pursue other avenues towards independence. One thing that is quite likely is treating the next Westminster elections as a de facto referendum, where, if 50% of the population vote SNP then this is seen as a green light. This is a path that is not without risks - firstly because the SNP only received 45% of the vote in 2019, an identical share to the Yes vote in 2014. Additionally, there may be significant numbers of voters who vote SNP to give Scotland a strong voice in Westminster, or vote for them on other policies, but would not vote for them if they knew their vote would be interpreted as a de facto vote for independence. Still, the SNP have dominated all Westminster and Scottish elections since the early 2010s, and it is not impossible that this threshold is reached.

The Donald is running again: can he win?

 

Whether Donald Trump can win the presidency again is actually two questions. The first is whether he can win the Republican nomination, and the second is whether he can go on from there to win the presidency itself. My answer to these questions is, respectively, 'no/maybe', and 'no' (though, as many will be aware, I've been wrong before).

It is abundantly clear that huge numbers of Republican voters are fiercely loyal to Trump. It is an article of faith to many of these voters that the 2020 election was stolen, and there is certainly a huge overlap between supporters of Trump and supporters of baseless conspiracies such as QAnon and 'Pizzagate'. It would be foolish to write Trump off; in 2020 many believed that other well established, experienced and mainstream candidates like Jeb Bush (a brother and son of a president, and a governor in his own right), Ted Cruz (a Texas senator) and Marco Rubio (a senator from Florida) would be well placed to beat him. But Trump's policies, stamina, unique debating style, and ability for attracting publicity made him a difficult opponent to beat.

This time, however, he does have another strong opponent in the form of Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, who has just won reelection in hugely convincing fashion. But Trump beat similarly strong opponents before - why not this time? Well, last time he was running as an outsider - all other candidates were painted by Trump as being soft, or working with Democrats, or any number of other more offensive ideas (like being the Zodiac killer in the case of Ted Cruz). This time Trump has to run on his record in office. Whilst president he failed to enact Obamacare reform, and many in the GOP will be unwilling to replicate 4 years that many found exhausting. It will also not have escaped the notice of those in his party that many of those endorsed by Trump in the recent mid-terms failed to win election, suggesting an aversion to him from some voters.

Still, the 2022 Republican Party is still the party of Donald Trump. It will be difficult for anyone to beat him, and he is hugely popular amongst Republicans. Whilst some of the sheen may have worn off it will still be very hard to beat him, and Trump can point to achievements such as the appointment of three arch-conservative Supreme Court justices, leading to the 2022 Jackson abortion decision. This would be likely to play very well with the Republican arch-conservative support base.

If Donald Trump can clear the hurdle of the Republican primary, we could well see a repeat of the 2020 presidential election, against Joe Biden, who would be 81, nearly 82, at the time of the next election against a 78 year old Trump. Trump could have the advantage of an unpopular president, but would obviously come with baggage of his own. The lack of success for Trump endorsed candidates in the recent midterms might suggest that he will struggle in 2024, and that women and other groups who have particular motivation to vote will turn out strongly to vote against Trump. Whatever happens, we are destined for a tumultuous couple of years with Donald Trump back at the forefront of American politics.