This week has been one of the most momentous (and for many, devastating) in a long time in US politics. The Supreme Court, in their case Dobbs vs Jackson Women's Health Organisation, have lifted restrictions on US states that have in effect guaranteed the right to abortion in all states since 1973 and the court case Roe vs Wade.
Already some states have put restrictions in place, including some that had 'trigger laws' that were designed to come into effect the second that Roe was lifted. You can track the situtation here, but there are already bans in states such as Alabama, Oklahoma, and South Dakota, and even, surprisingly, Wyoming, a state that voted for Joe Biden in 2020, and which has reverted to a 173-year-old ban. A law in Florida that would have prevented abortion after 15 weeks has been struck down by a judge, though it is likely that this will be reviewed by higher courts. Restrictions on abortion now exist in 21 states, at the time of writing.
(As an aside, it should be noted that there are still limited rights for women in the UK, as Northern Ireland has only recently decriminalised abortion and still only up to 12 weeks)
The quest to overturn Roe is part of a long game by the GOP. It is worth remembering that the Democrats have won the popular vote in 7 out of the last 8 presidential elections, and only one current Supreme Court justice predates that time (Clarence Thomas). Through election victories with a minority of the vote, in 2000 and 2016, the Republicans have appointed 6 of the 9 current justices, and though Democrats have been in power for far longer over that period they have only been able to appoint 3. In one case, that of Merrick Garland, Barack Obama was prevented from appointing him by the spurious reasoning from Senate Majority Leader of the time, Mitch McConnell, that it was the last year of his term, and therefore he should not be able to appoint a SC justice. Republican senators refused to even meet with Garland, in order to begin the process. Of course, in 2016 when Ruth Bader Ginsburg died the Republicans rushed through the confirmation of Amy Coney Barratt in record time.
What this goes to show is that the Republicans have been consistently willing to play hardball, in a way that Democrats have not been. Republicans have been willing to use the system within Congress to block the Democrat agenda at every turn (the famous 'victory of no') and Democrats haven't reallty had an answer, being unwilling to remove the filibuster, acting in a less united way, and failing to fully take stock of the new political reality. Jamie Bouie, writing in the New York Times this week, said that the Democratic leadership didn't seem to understand the consequences of this, primarily using this as a funding opporunity for candidates, and pointing out that Biden (a famously centrist operator, who has friendships with many of those perpetrating the recent conservative revolution) recently praised Mitch McConnell, The article has one striking section: “Thank you for being my friend,” Biden said to a man who is almost singularly responsible for the destruction of the Senate as a functional lawmaking body and whose chief accomplishment in public life is the creation of a far-right Supreme Court majority that is now poised to roll American jurisprudence back to the 19th century." In short, Democrats continue to bring knives to a gun fight.
The overturning of Roe is not the only culture-war issue that has been taken on by the court. This week, they also overturned New York's handgun ban (NY State Rifle and Pistol Association vs Bruen), which has already led to changes in the state's system. Additionally, the court, in Kennedy vs Bremerton School District, has now decreed that school prayer should now be allowed, dramatically stripping back the separation of church and state. And in another case, the court has determined that Biden's environmental aims go beyond the powers granted to the Environmental Protection Agency. All told, this is a huge set of precedents, that could change the landscape in the US for years to come.
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