UK Local Election Preview

Local elections in the UK are a bit... messy. Whilst the US has mid-term elections scheduled 2 years after a presidential election, in Britain they are a bit more variable. Firstly, as general elections are not at fixed times (sorry Fixed Term Parliament Act) it means that they can occur at various times throughout a parliamentary term. Secondly, there are a huge number of different types of council, with different term limits and type of election, and even a different electoral system in Scotland (STV, with votes for 16 year olds!). There are normally at least some council elections every year, but with some years having a far greater number.

Locations holding local elections in 2022, from this wikipedia article.

There are county councils, London Boroughs, Metropolitan Boroughs, Unitary Authorities, District Councils, and mayoralties up for grabs. Some locations are electing all councillors, some half, some a third. It is certainly a confusing picture, and some may question their importance.

However, these elections are often seen as a important benchmark for how the government and opposition are performing at the time. In 1995 the Conservatives lost 2,000 local councillors in the first elections faced by Tony Blair as Labour leaders. Similarly, the Conservatives foreshadowed their 2010 electoral victory by being the largest party in local government for several years ahead of them gaining control of Number 10. For this reason, a lot of commentators have been considering whether, given the problems of the Conservative Party at present, this could be a damaging election for them. The Tories are behind in the polls, have had the partygate scandal dragging on from December, and have history against them, in the form of being a long standing party in power in the middle of their term.

Still, there are caveats to this. Turnout is often very low in council elections, and this can have odd effects. Whilst this can mean that those that turn up have more reason to dislike the government, it is also true that older voters, who have the highest turnout, have hugely favoured the Conservatives and Brexit in recent elections. As the elections are not in all boroughs it could mean that the results are also not fully reflective for the mood of the country. 

There are other things at play here. as well. A Conservative Party determined to keep Boris Johnson will likely play down any losses as being roughly what they expected. However, a Conservative Party determined to remove him may well see their opportunity to strike.