'May you live in interesting times' is a phrase which (apologies if I have used this before), could certainly be applied to the post-Brexit UK, and one can certainly understand the way in which this could be interpreted as a curse. Whilst at the age of 32 I had lived under 5 prime ministers in my whole life (1984-2016, Thatcher-Major-Blair-Brown-Cameron), pupils in our Sixth Form are now in some cases on their 6th (2004-2022, Blair-Brown-Cameron-May-Johnson-Truss). It is easy to see the appeal of a more boring political landscape after recent events.
The first thing to say on the above question is that there are actually two questions rather than one: whether there will be an election does not necessarily have any bearing on whether Liz Truss will remain as Prime Minister. Since the PM's 'mini-budget' a few weeks ago the country and the Conservative Party have been plunged into chaos. Firstly, the pound slipped heavily against the dollar, damaging economic confidence and financial markets. Additionally, a dramatic increase in interest rates has, amongst other impacts, had a hugely detrimental effect on mortgage offers, with the cost of borrowing hugely increasing for huge sections of the population who are already under pressure due to other cost of living increases.
Labour have opened up poll leads that range from the low 20s to as much as 34%, with a poll yesterday putting the parties on 53% and 19%. It scarcely needs to be said that such numbers would lead to a Conservative wipe out, and a result that could be even worse than 1997 (not that I necessarily expect that to happen). Perhaps most damaging for Truss is that Labour is now trusted on the economy above the Conservatives, and her personal approval rating is now lower than Boris Johnson's during party-gate. (A sub-plot here is that Labour probably don't want Liz Truss to go! She has been brilliant for them!)
Unhappy Conservative MPs have already forced two U-turns from the government at the time of writing - namely those of a cut to benefits, or more accurately not raising them in line with inflation, and reversing the decision to abolish the top rate of tax at a time when the country is already in financial crisis.
Yesterday the noises from journalists were that the Conservative Party were already considering how they could replace Truss with either Penny Mordaunt or Rishi Sunak. This would obviously be very unpopular with party members, who have only just chosen Truss, but MPs must be concerned that a huge number of them may lose their seats if things continue as they are.
So, to be clear, if the Conservatives choose to remove Truss there will NOT be a general election. But what could lead to one?
If a vote of confidence is called in the government it could currently be tricky for Liz Truss to win it, with so many unhappy MPs. However, it is unclear whether MPs would be likely to go for this, as this would certainly be a case of turkeys voting for Christmas.
Alternatively if the government loses a vote over a new budget that could trigger an election. Again, it may be quite likely that a huge proportion of the measures in the mini-budget will no longer exist by the time this comes to a vote.
What all this means is that I still view an imminent general election as very unlikely. However, I would also suggest that the chances of Liz Truss remaining as Prime Minister until the next election is scheduled in 2024 (or possibly the very beginning of 2025) are almost nil. She is not only deeply unpopular in the country, but has seemingly lost credibility amongst her own MPs. The near silence with which she was greeted by the Conservative side at Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesday does not bode well.
We are watching a Prime Minister who will not be in post for long. The big questions are for the Conservative Party's own MPs, who are traditionally ruthless. How and when will they strike? Time will tell, but I am going to bet that it will be very soon.
Further reading:
Truss weak position https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2022/10/truss-starmer-and-sturgeon-are-all-poised-for-political-overhaul
Marr https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/andrew-marr/marr-its-deranged-to-think-truss-will-be-ousted-but-a-sudden-political-collapse/
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2022/09/liz-truss-survive-no-confidence-andrew-marr
Pound crash https://www.omfif.org/2022/08/if-truss-becomes-prime-minister-sterling-will-crash/
